The Lindy effect

If your organisation is unfamiliar with the Lindy effect¹, whose definition is (I provide an example next, since the definition can be convoluted):

the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to their current age.

For example, based on the Lindy effect, an application which has existed for 2 years is expected to exist for another 2 years; along the same logic, an application that has existed for 50 years is expected to exist for another 50 years.²

This is not a theorem; this is a heuristic (a rule of thumb).

To take the Lindy effect into account, is not to say that all novelties will die; some novelties will supersede incumbents; however, most will vanish. Startup founders know that: 9 out of 10 startups will die.

If we can see this, reminding us of the Lindy effect can guide us when we are tempted to ditch the old for the new, thinking that the new will salvage us.